CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-23T12:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-23T12:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34135/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARY: CME seen to the north-northeast in SOHO LASCO and northeast in STEREO A COR2 that appears to be associated with a minor eruption with northward deflection occurring near N19E15 south of Active Region 3864 as seen in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284. Flickering magnetic field lines are observed off the northeast limb nearly simultaneously after the on-disk signature seen in SDO 171 which may suggest, with low confidence, a possible simultaneous far-side component. Triangulation of the CME using SOHO/STEREO A coronagraphs suggested with higher confidence that the CME was predominantly associated with the on-disk signatures. This CME possibly arrived on 2024-10-26 and further analysis is ongoing.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-27T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/34140/1 Model Inputs: 2024-10-23T12:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-12.0, Lat.=39.0, Speed=467.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-10-23T20:30Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-10-23T00:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-25T07:37Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241023_203000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 73.82 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2024-10-23T22:11Z
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